ACRA Financial Stress Index (ACRA FSI KZ)

The Index assesses the proximity of Kazakhstan’s financial system to a state of crisis.
ACRA SFSI methodology is based on calculating structural imbalances in the financial system (the direct method).

The Index calculation principles

Year All period

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Related research reports

TitleDate

Tenge volatility adds to instability in Kazakhstan’s financial system
Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan06.02.2019

Financial stability in Kazakhstan has reached its pre-crisis level
Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan21.08.2018

Higher share of short-term borrowings has not increased financial instability in Kazakhstan
Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan19.03.2018

Kazakhstan’s financial system is becoming more stable but imbalances remain
Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan 20.12.2017

Comments

The Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan (ACRA SFSI KZ) rose to 3.63 pts in 2018 from 2.6 pts a year earlier. Greater instability of the Kazakh financial market is largely due to currency risks. The growth in ACRA SFSI KZ is mainly driven by the increase in the currency risk trigger (the volatility of the KZT exchange rate rose by 63% in 2H2018), while the refinancing risk trigger edged up by 4% in the same period. In 2019, the most significant risk for ACRA SFSI KZ is expected to be the risk of increased volatility of the currency trigger, driven by the instability of the KZT exchange rate. In the context of the refinancing risk trigger, there are no significant potential risks, since the NBRK's interest rate policy is likely to be mild throughout the year.

07.02.2019

In early 2018, the Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan (ACRA SFSI KZ) continued sliding and reached 0.52 pts by the end of 1Q2018, which is much lower than the previous values of ACRA SFSI KZ. It indicates a growth of stability in the national financial system. The index is very close to its pre-crisis level: in 2010–2013, its value was equal to zero. In this period, the interest rate spread and the foreign exchange rate were the lowest. In 2H2018, the potential risks for the Kazakhstan's financial system may be caused by the growing demand for foreign currency, driven by seasonality and expectedly weaker tenge in case of growing exchange rate for base currencies.

21.08.2018

Contacts

Natalia Porokhova
Senior Director, Head of Sovereign Ratings and Forecasting Group
+7 (495) 139 04 90
natalia.porokhova@acra-ratings.ru

ACRA Financial Stress Index (ACRA FSI KZ)

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