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Telecom providers expect CAPEX to grow

Russian telecom market: 2022 outlook

  • ACRA estimates show that in 2018, the Russian telecommunications market may grow by 3.7%, up to RUB 1.64 tln. Afterwards, we expect the market to grow by 2.7% annually, with the growth rate slowing down by 2022. The key segment of the market is mobile communications, covering 50% of the market volume.
  • Sector's profitability will continue to restore. Reintroduction of unlimited mobile data tariff plans should not affect ARPU (average revenue per user) and profitability of TSPs thanks to a cautious pricing policy. Strong competition may prevent companies from passing the growing data storage expenses down to users, which may restrict the profitability. According to our estimates, the FFO margin before net interest and taxes may reach 36% in 2018 and grow by 1–2 pps in the next four years.
  • Starting from 2019, ACRA expects that TSPs' CAPEX will surge. According to ACRA estimates for the next five years, CAPEX (capital expenditures) for data storage infrastructure may reach RUB 250…

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