Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Russian power industry will return to debt market in the 2020s

Cash flows in the thermal generation sector of Russia

Surge of investments into the TPP upgrade program will fall on the plunge of cash flows caused by cease of DPM payments

High leverage and long periods of negative cash flows are common for the global electric power industry due to high capital intensity and long lifespans of investment projects. In 2016, the Russian electricity sector showed positive free cash flow (FCF) (₽ 70 bln vs. -₽ 117 bln in 2012), for the first time since the RAO UES reform and the start of vast investments under the DPM program. This has occurred thanks to the thermal generation sector (OGCs and TGCs), while in other sectors (power grid sector, JSC RusHydro), ACRA does not expect the FCF to go into the positive zone before 2019–2020.

In 2018-2020, the FCF in the thermal generation sector will reach the level of ₽ 150 bln per year and it is likely to be the best indicator among other Russian sectors (FCF of non-oil companies reached ₽ 100-130 bln in 2015-2016). This is caused by the completion of…

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