Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

"10+10": Russian power sector anticipating new reforms to break investment pause

Russian electricity sector 2022 outlook

The forecast is drawn up in line with ACRA's General Principles of Socioeconomic Indicators Forecasting.

In July 2018, ten years will expire since the "5+5" reforms of RAO UES (five years for preparations, five years for implementation).

  • Low inflation to knock down regulatory risks… Inflation is a key pricing driver for infrastructure monopolies. Low inflation that mitigates the negative effects of restricted tariffs on monopolies will support the credit quality in the sector.
  • …but to boost expenses for bad debt write-off. Low inflation may aggravate payment delays persisting in the electric power sector (currently, the rate of overdue payments is 5%). High inflation accelerated depreciation of bad debts, but the forthcoming low-inflation period may push down the sector's profits by 0.7 pps, unless payment discipline turns for the better.
  • The period from 2018 to 2020 will bring the industry's historic high financials. Cease of investments into new generation capacities and…

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