Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Among CIS oil exporters, only Kazakhstan will evade the risk of slowing down economy

CIS oil economies' growth

  • Over 27 years of post-Soviet transformation, oil-rich CIS economies demonstrated the best growth rates. Almost all CIS economies have restored after the economic shock in 1990–1995, but the rate of recovery differed by country. For example, the lowest drop in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan economies in 1995 was compensated subsequently by almost two-fold growth.
  • The growth potential of CIS commodity economies is limited. Low factor productivity and weak investments into production capital deprive the Azerbaijan economy of stable growth drivers. The only growth driver is recovering oil prices. As to the Russian economy, its growth potential is restricted by a negative demographic trend.
    Exception: Kazakhstan. The importance of oil prices for Kazakh GDP is overestimated: for almost 20 years, the key role has been played by the structural growth based on the fundamental sources — labor and production capital.
  • No overheat in the Azerbaijan economy will contribute to lower inflation

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