Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Russian air carriers awaiting next take-off

Russian air passenger market 2022 outlook

  • Passenger air transportation can break the record and reach 131 mln people carried in 2018. The above would be driven by positive macroeconomic environment, FIFA World Cup, and possible reinstatement of full-scale air service to Egypt. We expect the total passenger traffic in both international and domestic air routes to post a 5.5% increase.
  • Retail lending growth to continue fueling the air passenger market, although the real disposable income of the population would see no significant gains. Stable domestic currency (with the USD/RUB exchange at 58-63) and retaining current unemployment would support transportation service demand from the population. Owing to the positive macroeconomic environment, the market may record a 2.4% gain.
  • Competition to keep companies from passing increased costs to passengers. In 2017, the key costs of air carriers (fuel, airport services, payroll) have increased substantially; however, they are unlikely to translate these costs into transportation…

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