Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Higher share of short-term borrowings has not increased financial instability in Kazakhstan

Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan

ACRA SFSI KZ measures financial stability of the country and assesses its vulnerability to specific risks by aggregating information regarding maturities and currency profile of assets and liabilities of economic agents (financial companies, non-financial companies, population and state)

As at end-2017, Structural Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan (ACRA SFSI KZ) continued sliding and now stands at 8% of its maximum registered level (Figure 1). Absence of trigger events and a more significant decline of the FX imbalance amid increasing liquidity imbalance strengthened financial stability.

Generally, as the base rate came down, inflation eased from 7.5% in June 2017 to 6.5% in February 2018, and the tenge FX rate remained relatively stable, market interest rates demonstrated a corresponding decline: KazPrime-3M reached its two-year minimum, and TONIA is also at its minimum level for the same period. Low interest rates drive borrowing demand in the national currency across the…

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