Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Tougher operational environment to hinder Russian banks in generating higher earnings

Russian banking sector 2021 outlook

  • The government’s stake in the entire banking system has risen to 70% by early 2018 vs 63% as at early 2017. The above figure has become the highest among all industries in the Russian market (the government owns 66% of the oil&gas sector). The government’s stake will tend to grow further through to privatization of the largest banks undergoing financial rehabilitation; such growth, however, would not be as significant as seen in 2017.
  • As a result, the nature and quality of competition would change: competition between government-owned banks for funding sources and borrowers would intensify ever more, and the reliability factor would become secondary for the competition.
  • Banking assets in the Russian Federation would see a 5.2% growth in 2018, which is below the 2017 figure. The aggregate loan portfolio would experience growth acceleration totaling 5.5%, which would be supported by declining interest rates and partial recovery in lending to corporate clients.
  • Cost of risk in

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