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Although a favorable period in the iron & steel industry is running its course, creditworthiness of Russian producers would improve

Russian iron & steel industry 2022 outlook

  • Global ferrous metals and commodity prices grew 20% in 2017. A correction is expected in 2018-2020. Coal markets are substantially overheated by virtue of Cyclone Debbie aftermath in Australia and the U.S. coal industry’s inability to sharply increase output at enterprises shut down during the period of low commodity prices (2014-2015). A deficit in graphite electrodes used in electric steelmaking resulted in cast iron price surge. These developments supported the iron ore market. However, high-grade coking coal (with the average price of USD 168 per ton in 2017) and iron ore (with the average price of USD 84 per ton in 2017) prices would start declining and would reach USD 140-150 per ton (FOB Australia) and 63 USD per ton (CIF Qingdao) by 2022.
  • By 2022, Russian steel output will set new records reaching 74 mln tons. Lower mortgage interest rates would support the rise in the sector: new housing properties would grow from 80 mln sq. m in 2016 to 89 mln sq. m by 2022. In addition…

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