Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Russian foreign trade turns East

Russia trading with Asia

Waning foreign trade turnover and increasingly closed economy marked Russia’s key ways of getting used to the oil price shock and ruble devaluation in 2014-2015. The ratio of value of exports and imports to GDP dropped from 38% in 2013 to 35% in 2016. The year 2017 is likely to see this indicator revert almost to the pre-crisis level of 37%.

Russia is likely to see further growth in trade turnover with Asian countries, with key risk being economic slowdown in China and ruble strengthening.

That said, amid declining Russian foreign trade, the share of Asian countries in its turnover climbed from 30% in 2013 to 35% in 2016. Notably, this increase was observed both in exports (from 28% to 33%) and imports (from 34% to 38%). Thus, China, Russia’s largest trading partner in Asia, boosted its share in Russian exports from 6.8% to 9.8% in 2013-2016, with imports of Chinese goods showing a similar trend over the period, hopping from 16.8% to 20.9%. In 2017, ACRA expects Russia’s foreign…

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