Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

One Year of Stability

Contributed to the Profile Magazine by Vasilisa Baranova, ACRA junior analyst

Russian financial system: out of crisis, still far from normal.

Since March 2016, no new crises befell the Russian financial system. But has it regained the stability seen in 2011-2013? Let the ACRA Financial Stress Index (ACRA FSI) tell its story.

The Russian economy has almost overcome the recession in 2016, when real GDP shed just 0.2%, while in 2017, we expect it to grow 0.5%. But this does not mean that Russia's financial system has also plunged out of the crisis. We are used to gauging financial stability of the Russian economy looking at oil price or ruble volatility. Indeed, the recent years saw these indicators assume a forefront role in measuring stability of the Russian financial system, although they reflect only part of economic phenomena, while the ACRA FSI describes the condition of the financial system as a whole. Based on a wide range of financial and economic indicators, the FSI provides for accounting for the widest possible array of potentially new sources of…

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