Training on modelling fundamentals December 17–18

Russia’s financial system is still experiencing a higher than pre-crisis level of stress

Analysis of the current state of the RF financial system

  • Since February 2016, Russia's financial system has been in the stable mode. Now that two years have elapsed since the liquidity crisis on the Russian interbank market and the shock devaluation of the RUB, inflation expectations and credit risk perceptions of the majority of borrowers have significantly decreased.
  • The level of stress experienced by the financial system still exceeds that of 2011–2013. The heightened stress is rooted in the oil market volatility and domestic recession. The observed volatility of oil prices and apprehensions of their prospective fluctuations can give a new impetus to the growing uncertainty about the dynamics of exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. Internal structural consequences of the recent economic downturn are yet to be overcome, although they are becoming much more predictable and are therefore generating less risk.
  • Changes in the interaction mechanism between the banking system and the Bank of Russia will not

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