Training on Forecasting September 17–18

ACRA published Draft methodology for assigning credit ratings to project finance issuers, instruments, and obligations

ACRA has published draft version of its Russian National Scale Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Project Finance Issuers, Instruments, and Obligations. The draft is available on ACRA’s website (https://www.acra-ratings.ru/criteria/1394) and is open to comments and suggestions from market participants.

This draft methodology outlines ACRA’s approach to assigning national scale credit ratings to both project finance transactions (PFT) with market risk exposures and availability-based PPP/ PFI/ P3 projects where the government is acting as a public partner and carries some or all of the above risks. The rating process involves quantitative and qualitative analysis of the combination of primary rating factors that, in ACRA’s opinion, determine the credit quality of the rated debt at both construction (if applicable) and operational phases. The construction and operational phases of a PFT are modelled individually.

ACRA uses the expected loss approach to assign credit ratings to project finance transactions. This approach takes into consideration both the probability of default and the severity of losses posed to investors upon default on the rated debt prior to its legal final maturity. In its analysis of PFT, the Agency assesses the expected loss on the particular project financing after a comprehensive study of the respective project’s characteristics.

ACRA’s methodology allows analyzing PFTs in a great variety of sectors including transport and social infrastructure (roads, bridges, airports, hospitals, and schools) as well as energy, including renewables, and solid waste recycling projects.

In its rating analysis, ACRA uses the GRASP modelling platform comprising several modules. The dedicated GRASP-PF module that assesses credit quality of project finance transactions is used in PFT analysis. The GRASP-PF module enables analysis of the probability of default and the expected loss on the rated debt as well as correlation between primary rating factors modelled using various methods including Monte Carlo simulation.

Through online rating analytics platform OPORA, ACRA’s clients have access to the broad range of subfactor assessments that define the profile of each individual transaction.

The draft methodology is open to discussion. ACRA encourages all interested parties to submit their comments and suggestions in writing to MethodologyPF@acra-ratings.ru by September 20, 2019. ACRA will consider all suggestions before the final version is approved by the Methodological Committee.

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